Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4920…2106 sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$69 (-5%) realized −$93 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$30
other 17% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 43% -10.8%
≤30d 14 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 43% -10.8%
≤90d 14 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 43% -10.8%
all 14 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 43% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 43% -10.8%
10% -28.3% 43% -19.4%
15% -35.3% 36% -27.2%
20% -41.6% 21% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$30 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage7d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 49¢ 56¢ $146 $169 +$24 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$53 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $156 −$68 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$9 -13%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$23 -75%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $32 −$26 -83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 +$9 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $81 +$43 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 −$9 -21%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$14 -33%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 +$21 +51%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $71 +$20 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $82 −$58 -71%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $82 +$30 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 66¢ $518 20m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $344 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $205 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $155 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 64¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 82¢ $85 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $32 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $71 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 77¢ $60 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 23¢ $7 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $69 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $30 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $10 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 100¢ $123 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 70¢ $33 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 55¢ $20 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 63¢ $6 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 64¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 58¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $41 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 42¢ $27 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.47 · official $169.50 (match) · 40 history records