trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 51¢ | 0¢ | $259 | $0 | −$259 (-100%) |
| Celtics vs. Hornets | Hornets | 51¢ | 0¢ | $637 | $0 | −$637 (-100%) |
| Packers vs. Bears | Packers | 53¢ | 0¢ | $175 | $0 | −$175 (-100%) |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $204 | $0 | −$204 (-100%) |
| Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings | Red Wings | 51¢ | 0¢ | $612 | $0 | −$612 (-100%) |
| Celtics vs. Hawks | Celtics | 50¢ | 0¢ | $695 | $0 | −$695 (-100%) |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox | Atlanta Braves | 59¢ | 0¢ | $119 | $0 | −$119 (-100%) |
| Heat vs. Rockets | Heat | 45¢ | 0¢ | $63 | $0 | −$63 (-100%) |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $300 | $0 | −$300 (-100%) |
| Capitals vs. Maple Leafs | Maple Leafs | 42¢ | 0¢ | $252 | $0 | −$252 (-100%) |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $689 | $0 | −$689 (-100%) |
| Heat vs. Raptors | Heat | 39¢ | 0¢ | $459 | $0 | −$459 (-100%) |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-28? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $191 | $0 | −$191 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? | Jun 13 | $12 | −$2 | -14% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? | Jun 13 | $0 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? | Jun 13 | $26 | −$1 | -3% |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox | Jun 09 | $121 | −$119 | -99% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers | May 21 | $263 | −$259 | -99% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies | May 19 | $140 | +$120 | +85% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 12 | $37 | +$23 | +61% |
| Heat vs. Raptors | Apr 09 | $468 | −$459 | -98% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 09 | $109 | +$61 | +56% |
| Capitals vs. Maple Leafs | Apr 08 | $252 | −$252 | -100% |
| Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings | Apr 07 | $612 | −$612 | -100% |
| Maple Leafs vs. Sharks | Apr 05 | $292 | +$258 | +89% |
| Bruins vs. Panthers | Apr 05 | $254 | +$366 | +144% |
| Devils vs. Rangers | Apr 02 | $470 | +$530 | +113% |
| Celtics vs. Hawks | Mar 30 | $700 | −$695 | -99% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Mar 29 | $204 | −$204 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Hornets | Mar 29 | $637 | −$637 | -100% |
| Red Wings vs. Sabres | Mar 29 | $380 | +$570 | +150% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27? | Mar 27 | $20 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? | Mar 27 | $91 | −$4 | -4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 27? | Mar 27 | $117 | −$5 | -4% |
| Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens | Mar 27 | $1,020 | +$980 | +96% |
| Kraken vs. Panthers | Mar 25 | $604 | +$536 | +89% |
| Avalanche vs. Penguins | Mar 25 | $900 | +$600 | +67% |
| Stars vs. Wild | Mar 24 | $675 | +$825 | +122% |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? | Mar 21 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Heat vs. Rockets | Mar 21 | $63 | −$63 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Spurs | Mar 21 | $800 | +$200 | +25% |
| Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-14? | Mar 19 | $611 | +$239 | +39% |
| Mavericks vs. Grizzlies | Mar 13 | $409 | +$211 | +52% |
| Golden Knights vs. Stars | Mar 12 | $228 | +$152 | +67% |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-28? | Feb 24 | $191 | −$191 | -100% |
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-22? | Feb 24 | $118 | +$82 | +70% |
| Pistons vs. Knicks | Feb 21 | $203 | +$317 | +156% |
| Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17? | Feb 19 | $54 | +$146 | +270% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? | Feb 16 | $252 | +$98 | +39% |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? | Feb 16 | $450 | +$450 | +100% |
| Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-06? | Feb 10 | $39 | +$51 | +131% |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? | Feb 10 | $366 | +$244 | +67% |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Feb 05 | $689 | −$689 | -100% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Feb 05 | $858 | +$242 | +28% |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | Jan 26 | $490 | +$370 | +75% |
| Magic vs. Grizzlies | Jan 22 | $196 | +$294 | +150% |
| Packers vs. Bears | Jan 08 | $175 | −$175 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -21.4% | -28.9% | 0% | 0% | -78.1% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -17.9% | -25.7% | 12% | 12% | -51.7% |
| ≤90d | 31 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 42% | 42% | +5.6% |
| all | 46 | +21.8% | +10.2% | 54% | 54% | +10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +10.2% | 54% | +10.5% |
| 10% | -0.4% | 54% | -0.1% |
| 15% | -10.0% | 50% | -9.7% |
| 20% | -18.8% | 46% | -18.6% |