Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x491c…b765 sports 1554 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$240 (+1%) realized +$349 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate80%1229W / 312L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days−$1,242
14 days−$387
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$142
other 6% +$77
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -31.4% -38.0% 50% 50% -46.2%
≤30d 591 -9.3% -17.9% 74% 52% -11.1%
≤90d 1541 -2.5% -11.8% 80% 69% -9.4%
all 1541 -2.5% -11.8% 80% 69% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 69% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 29% -18.1%
15% -27.9% 7% -26.0%
20% -35.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized+$349
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1229 / 312
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1541 / 1554
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 44¢ $68 $44 −$23 (-35%)
CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora: O/U 4.5 Under 78¢ 50¢ $23 $15 −$8 (-35%)
Club Blooming vs. GV CD San José: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 50¢ $22 $13 −$9 (-41%)
CD Real Tomayapo vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 48¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-47%)
Club The Strongest vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 47¢ $18 $9 −$8 (-47%)
CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. Club ABB: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 46¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-48%)
Mjallby AIF vs. Djurgardens IF: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 46¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-49%)
GV CD San José vs. Club The Strongest: O/U 4.5 Under 86¢ 45¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-48%)
CA Nacional Potosí vs. CDT Real Oruro: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 45¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-48%)
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Bamin Real Potosí: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 44¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-49%)
Club Blooming vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 4.5 Under 81¢ 42¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $145 +$55 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $159 +$41 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 +$49 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $82 +$18 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $79 +$21 +26%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $378 −$378 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $218 +$82 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$18 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $104 +$96 +92%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $70 +$30 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $71 +$29 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $72 +$28 +40%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $77 +$23 +31%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $80 −$80 -100%
HUS Agadir vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $80 −$80 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $77 −$77 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $149 −$149 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $147 −$147 -100%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $198 −$198 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $78 +$22 +29%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $79 +$21 +27%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $69 +$31 +46%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $170 +$30 +18%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $177 +$23 +13%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $84 +$16 +18%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $149 +$51 +34%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $81 +$19 +24%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $79 +$21 +27%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $76 +$24 +32%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $79 +$21 +26%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $68 +$32 +48%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $155 +$45 +29%
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $75 +$25 +33%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $73 +$27 +38%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $59 +$41 +69%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $71 +$29 +42%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $71 +$29 +42%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $68 +$32 +47%
Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $80 +$20 +25%
Angola vs. Mauritania: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $129 −$1 -0%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $80 +$20 +25%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $75 +$25 +33%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $367 +$133 +36%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $60 +$30 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $73 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $145 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $153 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $159 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $151 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $82 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $79 29h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $72 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $278 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $378 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $218 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $81 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 19¢ $19 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $19 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $104 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $70 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $71 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $72 6d
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $78 8d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $147 8d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 78¢ $79 8d
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 8d
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $80 8d
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $149 8d
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $77 8d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $170 9d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $177 9d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $84 9d
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $64 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.33 · official $367.33 (match) · 3500 history records