Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x491a…d3ee sports 152 markets active 13h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-4%) realized −$20 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%59W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$36
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$11
politics 21% −$11
other 14% −$13
world 9% $0
culture 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -38.7% -44.6% 29% 27% -35.9%
≤30d 135 -13.3% -21.6% 44% 40% -15.2%
≤90d 135 -13.3% -21.6% 44% 40% -15.2%
all 135 -13.3% -21.6% 44% 40% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 40% -15.2%
10% -29.1% 36% -23.4%
15% -35.9% 36% -30.8%
20% -42.2% 33% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses59 / 76
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions17
Markets (closed)135 / 152
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+196%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 56¢ 99¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+76%)
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 86¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 74¢ 70¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 87¢ 86¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 37¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +122%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +146%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +90%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +119%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2 +$3 +119%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +60%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $3 +$1 +41%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $4 +$1 +35%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $2 +$3 +216%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3 +$2 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 13h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 17h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 84¢ $4 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $2 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $3 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 5d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 28¢ $1 5d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 36¢ $2 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $5 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $2 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $3 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $2 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $2 6d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 45¢ $2 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $1 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 59¢ $3 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $2 6d
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? SELL No 97¢ $5 6d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.59 · official $38.19 (match) · 339 history records