Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
49 0x4914…aba4 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% $0
crypto 19% $0
sports 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +1.6% -8.0% 67% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 5 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×7.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.79 per $1 lost it wins $4.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage41d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $7 $0 +4%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $45 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. BUY 9¢ $44 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 21d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 21d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $43.35 · 52 history records