Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x4912…b45f sports 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$355 (+5%) realized +$355 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%102W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$537
7 days+$99
14 days+$345
30 days+$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$182
crypto 8% −$58
other 2% −$8
politics 1% −$2
weather 0% −$18
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +47.0% +33.0% 22% 22% -3.5%
≤30d 55 +73.7% +57.2% 40% 35% +2.1%
≤90d 169 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 31% -12.1%
all 231 +10.9% +0.3% 44% 37% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 37% -9.5%
10% -9.3% 31% -18.1%
15% -18.0% 28% -26.0%
20% -26.1% 23% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$355
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses102 / 129
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage260d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $310 +$316 +102%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $239 +$244 +102%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $145 −$20 -14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $27 −$24 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$8 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$24 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Jun 23 $11 −$9 -79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $99 −$98 -99%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $144 −$141 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $170 −$165 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $164 +$101 +62%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $114 +$137 +120%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $499 +$58 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $351 +$29 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $12 −$11 -87%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $160 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -89%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $5 −$1 -26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -42%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $33 +$5 +16%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 90¢ $13 8m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 90¢ $11 8m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 90¢ $32 8m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 90¢ $90 9m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 90¢ $9 9m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 39¢ $51 50m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 55¢ $25 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 43¢ $470 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 16¢ $46 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 18¢ $83 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 20¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 27¢ $102 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 23¢ $10 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 23¢ $1 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 90¢ $194 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 61¢ $130 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 46¢ $23 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 50¢ $1 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 50¢ $23 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 14¢ $18 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 25¢ $50 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 31¢ $26 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 21¢ $26 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Sri Lanka 71¢ $127 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 52¢ $51 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 56¢ $25 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 55¢ $22 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Sri Lanka 68¢ $12 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 54¢ $10 18h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 18¢ $20 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 907 history records