Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:50:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4912…b76f sports 342 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$51,190 (-15%) realized −$51,171 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%133W / 204L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$988per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$3,260est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,568
7 days+$2,568
14 days+$2,568
30 days+$2,858
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$36,378
other 35% −$13,650
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.4% +15.2% 100% 100% +15.2%
≤30d 2 +44.7% +30.9% 100% 100% +16.7%
≤90d 337 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 38% -23.2%
all 337 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 38% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 38% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 37% -30.6%
15% -37.7% 36% -37.3%
20% -43.8% 34% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$704) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$926 vs −$849 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,108
Realized−$51,171
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses133 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$3,260
Open positions5
Markets (closed)337 / 342
History coverage71d
Avg bet$988
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 48¢ $587 $570 −$18 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 57¢ 60¢ $243 $254 +$11 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B FOKUS 47¢ 48¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Nigma Galaxy 45¢ 46¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Sashi Esport 32¢ 22¢ $48 $34 −$14 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $9,384 +$2,568 +27%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qu May 25 $467 +$290 +62%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: May 21 $132 −$91 -69%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Le May 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-05-12? May 16 $231 +$96 +42%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $139 +$286 +206%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $1,837 −$1,812 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $267 −$261 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 13 $261 −$257 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Washington Mystics May 10 $285 −$279 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $2,964 −$2,936 -99%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $4,452 −$4,386 -98%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 08 $73 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs TNC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage May 08 $84 −$82 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 08 $1,503 +$2,531 +168%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $59 +$73 +124%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers Lea May 06 $56 −$55 -98%
Map Handicap: WIP (-1.5) vs F9 EICAR (+1.5) May 06 $71 +$104 +146%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 06 $105 +$216 +206%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 06 $251 +$431 +172%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 05 $154 −$151 -98%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $227 −$223 -98%
Map Handicap: EG.A (-1.5) vs Division One (+1.5) May 04 $93 −$91 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 04 $398 −$392 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 04 $262 +$433 +165%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $111 +$433 +388%
Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
LoL: HMBLE vs Colossal Gaming (BO5) - LIT Playoffs May 04 $25 −$24 -97%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-01? May 03 $941 −$924 -98%
Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls May 03 $189 +$144 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $2,037 +$769 +38%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $7,532 −$7,419 -98%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season May 02 $136 +$149 +109%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? May 02 $1,111 +$1,319 +119%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? May 02 $2,676 +$2,853 +107%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $115 −$114 -99%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 02 $141 −$139 -98%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 02 $141 −$139 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega May 02 $90 −$88 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? May 02 $830 −$817 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1? May 02 $813 −$801 -98%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season May 02 $149 −$147 -98%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha May 01 $324 −$319 -98%
LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team - Game 1 Winner May 01 $58 −$58 -98%
LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Seas May 01 $143 −$140 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $271 −$265 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 01 $960 −$945 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $1,376 −$1,354 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 01 $146 +$148 +101%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 01 $177 +$292 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $294 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $302 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 47¢ $131 1h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 32¢ $49 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 45¢ $122 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $246 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1,265 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1,265 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $6,853 3h
Counter-Strike: SAW vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: SELL Julie&cie 16¢ $41 32d
Counter-Strike: SAW vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: BUY Julie&cie 50¢ $132 32d
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Le BUY HANJIN BRION Challengers 12¢ $41 32d
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qu BUY Sentinels 61¢ $467 33d
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY Oh My God 55¢ $1,837 39d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 32¢ $139 39d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY FaZe 23¢ $267 40d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers BUY BNK FearX Youth 37¢ $261 40d
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-05-12? BUY No 70¢ $231 41d
New York Liberty vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 32¢ $285 43d
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 71¢ $1,376 44d
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 50¢ $3,351 44d
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 50¢ $1,102 44d
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season BUY Shopify Rebellion 33¢ $73 45d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs TNC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage BUY TNC 22¢ $84 45d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 35¢ $686 46d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 38¢ $541 47d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 38¢ $276 47d
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $59 47d
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers Lea BUY Dorado Gaming 16¢ $56 47d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 41¢ $154 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,108.30 · official $1,108.30 (match) · 1140 history records