Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x490c…a10d sports 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 655d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%6W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$5
other 31% −$4
politics 23% −$3
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 172 -0.7% -10.1% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

655d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses6 / 166
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 172
History coverage655d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 172 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 15 $23 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $30 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 8PM ET Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 3PM ET Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 6AM ET Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 7AM ET Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 12AM ET Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 11 $14 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - January 10, 6PM ET Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2PM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 10AM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 10 $14 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - January 10, 4AM ET Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 10PM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 5PM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 5PM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 1PM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 7AM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $14 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 11PM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 8, 12PM ET Jan 09 $0 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $15 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 1PM ET Jan 08 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 1PM ET Jan 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $15 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 5h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 5h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $25 8d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $25 8d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $28 16d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $28 16d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $29 24d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $30 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $22 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $23 37d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $30 160d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $30 160d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 97¢ $31 160d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 97¢ $31 161d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 161d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $14 161d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 161d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $14 161d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $14 162d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 97¢ $14 162d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $14 162d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 97¢ $14 162d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $15 162d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $15 162d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $15 162d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $15 162d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 97¢ $14 163d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $14 163d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $14 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 547 history records