Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:17:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x490b…eec9 sports 369 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,702 (+5%) realized +$7,556 · open +$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%147W / 220L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$1,245est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$776now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days−$369
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7,237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 100% +24.6%
≤30d 3 -54.1% -58.5% 33% 33% -75.3%
≤90d 367 -3.1% -12.3% 40% 40% -5.4%
all 367 -3.1% -12.3% 40% 40% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 40% -5.4%
10% -20.7% 40% -14.5%
15% -28.4% 39% -22.7%
20% -35.4% 35% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$578 vs −$354 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$776
Realized+$7,556
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses147 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,245
Open positions2
Markets (closed)367 / 369
History coverage86d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner 9z 41¢ 40¢ $412 $407 −$5 (-1%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 59¢ 100¢ $218 $369 +$151 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $208 −$202 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $210 −$205 -98%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL C Apr 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $840 −$830 -99%
LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $429 −$379 -88%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $418 −$409 -98%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $426 −$417 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $372 −$367 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H Moneyline Apr 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $32 −$32 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $1,378 −$1,354 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 23 $301 +$751 +249%
LoL: GOAL vs Spartans EU - Game 1 Winner Apr 21 $74 −$72 -98%
LoL: GOAL vs Spartans EU - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $301 −$294 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $152 +$241 +158%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $800 −$787 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $29 −$29 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 19 $501 −$493 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $60 +$74 +124%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 15 $57 +$340 +596%
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q Apr 15 $1,700 +$3,201 +188%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs NeverPlay (BO3) - Exort Series Apr 14 $75 +$10 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $40 +$177 +443%
LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 14 $100 +$62 +62%
Valorant: Team Envy vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 14 $448 +$687 +153%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $372 −$363 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Clo Apr 14 $178 −$178 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $134 −$131 -97%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Persona Grata (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Apr 12 $250 +$125 +50%
Map Handicap: AAB (-1.5) vs WAZABI (+1.5) Apr 12 $67 −$66 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $72 −$71 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $104 −$101 -97%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $134 −$130 -97%
Counter-Strike: ZOTIX vs Vexar (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #4 Playof Apr 12 $606 +$658 +108%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 3 Winner Apr 12 $665 +$891 +134%
LoL: Dark Passage vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season Apr 11 $70 +$26 +38%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs Hashiras (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Apr 11 $123 +$152 +123%
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 10 $78 −$76 -98%
Map Handicap: WAVE (-1.5) vs NeverPlay (+1.5) Apr 10 $62 −$61 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Apr 10 $250 −$245 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $8 +$17 +226%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs InControl (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 10 $391 +$206 +53%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Apr 10 $1,100 −$86 -8%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $1,287 −$1,259 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Apr 10 $135 −$135 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Apr 10 $525 −$514 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Apr 10 $953 −$934 -98%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group A Apr 09 $152 −$149 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 61¢ $19 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 59¢ $202 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 41¢ $420 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 11¢ $37 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $145 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $13 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 10¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 18¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 10¢ $164 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 10¢ $1 7d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 9d
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL C BUY Procyon Gaming 35¢ $1 48d
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL C BUY Procyon Gaming 28¢ $60 48d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 61¢ $840 51d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $18 51d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $400 51d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 26¢ $26 51d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $400 51d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $20 51d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $1 51d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $1 51d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $350 51d
LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner BUY Supernova 55¢ $28 52d
LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner BUY Conviction 44¢ $1 52d
LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner BUY Conviction 44¢ $400 52d
Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 52¢ $6 52d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 51¢ $32 52d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner BUY Sentinels 43¢ $2 52d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner BUY Sentinels 47¢ $77 52d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner BUY Sentinels 44¢ $700 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $776.40 · official $776.40 (match) · 1366 history records