Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4908…7caf other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$704 (-8%) realized −$711 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 32L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$3,586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$961
14 days−$776
30 days−$776
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$722
crypto 26% +$336
sports 24% −$355
economics 1% −$12
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -16.7% -24.6% 35% 27% -29.8%
≤30d 52 -13.9% -22.1% 38% 29% -21.8%
≤90d 53 -11.4% -19.9% 40% 30% -21.5%
all 53 -11.4% -19.9% 40% 30% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 30% -21.5%
10% -27.5% 23% -29.1%
15% -34.5% 19% -35.9%
20% -41.0% 19% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$45 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$3,586
Realized−$711
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions6
Markets (closed)53 / 60
History coverage38d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 45¢ 70¢ $823 $1,297 +$474 (+58%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 72¢ 80¢ $1,152 $1,272 +$120 (+10%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 72¢ 90¢ $572 $724 +$152 (+27%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 55¢ 30¢ $220 $118 −$102 (-46%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 57¢ 52¢ $103 $95 −$7 (-7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $49 $56 +$7 (+14%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 59¢ 38¢ $30 $19 −$10 (-35%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $273 −$8 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $16 $0 -2%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $265 −$5 -2%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$78 +676%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $49 +$3 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $75 +$81 +108%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 +$8 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 +$7 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 −$8 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$10 +56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 +$14 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 19 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $17 +$19 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $60 −$43 -72%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $588 −$254 -43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $232 −$75 -32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 −$57 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $514 −$502 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +86%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$22 +19%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $95 +$87 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $582 +$19 +3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 −$2 -17%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $741 −$13 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $222 +$202 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $353 +$51 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 7m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 55¢ $223 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $290 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $290 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $290 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $290 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $168 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $183 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $76 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $119 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $64 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $183 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 70¢ $283 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 73¢ $294 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $37 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $265 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $9 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 53¢ $14 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $24 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $48 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $8 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,585.57 · official $3,585.57 (match) · 410 history records