Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

49 0x4908…a6cb other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$172 (+41%) realized +$16 · open +$156

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +157% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +114% what you keep after slip

Net edge+114%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$106per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+132.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+156.9%	+132.4%	50%	50%	+121.1%
≤30d	2	+156.9%	+132.4%	50%	50%	+121.1%
≤90d	2	+156.9%	+132.4%	50%	50%	+121.1%
all	2	+156.9%	+132.4%	50%	50%	+121.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+132.4%	50%	+121.1%
10%	+110.2%	50%	+99.9%
15%	+89.8%	50%	+80.6%
20%	+71.2%	50%	+62.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +144% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +157% · $-wt +144% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$105 vs −$3 · ×40.1 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×40.1 per $1 lost it wins $40.1

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$458

Realized+$16

Unrealized+$156

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$106

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	19¢	48¢	$188	$458	+$270 (+144%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$115	$1	−$114 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$38	−$3	-7%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$33	+$105	+321%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$36	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$35	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$60	1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$8	1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	7¢	$31	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$37	2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	40¢	$136	2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$99	4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$38	4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$137	4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$60	6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$23	6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$33	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.46 · official $458.46 (match) · 13 history records