Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4907…d2dc sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$83 (+3%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$98
14 days+$170
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$104
other 24% −$99
politics 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -15.7% -23.7% 0% 0% -24.4%
≤30d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 43% 29% -5.5%
≤90d 15 -19.2% -26.9% 27% 20% -9.4%
all 15 -19.2% -26.9% 27% 20% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 20% -9.4%
10% -33.9% 20% -18.0%
15% -40.2% 20% -26.0%
20% -46.1% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$48 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage48d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $261 −$25 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $334 −$72 -22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $239 +$96 +40%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 08 $205 −$200 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $330 +$372 +112%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $540 −$80 -15%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $233 +$7 +3%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 16 $3 $0 -6%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $118 +$56 +48%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 10 $14 −$2 -12%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $3 −$1 -26%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 05 $91 −$90 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $126 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium v BUY 17¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 73¢ $236 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 80¢ $261 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $261 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $334 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 99¢ $335 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 70¢ $239 12d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $444 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $112 28d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 15¢ $112 28d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 31¢ $240 29d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 49¢ $240 29d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 46¢ $233 31d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $25 31d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 17¢ $258 31d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 14¢ $218 35d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 35d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 23¢ $216 35d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $174 41d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $174 41d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 67¢ $118 41d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 17¢ $118 41d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 41d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 41d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 43d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 43d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 45d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $2 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $12.08 · 47 history records