Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4907…cdc2 world 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$134 (-2%) realized −$72 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate31%57W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day115.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$134
14 days−$28
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$40
other 13% −$81
politics 4% −$30
sports 3% +$20
finance 3% −$27
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$18
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -4.7% -13.8% 31% 16% -5.4%
≤30d 185 -5.9% -14.8% 31% 15% -10.1%
≤90d 185 -5.9% -14.8% 31% 15% -10.1%
all 185 -5.9% -14.8% 31% 15% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 15% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 11% -18.7%
15% -30.4% 10% -26.6%
20% -37.2% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$310
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses57 / 128
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions24
Markets (closed)185 / 209
History coverage20d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day115.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? No 60¢ 69¢ $73 $83 +$10 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 38¢ $45 $30 −$15 (-34%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 9¢ 26¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+187%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 21¢ 29¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $36 $14 −$23 (-63%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 49¢ 26¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-47%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 19¢ 8¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-55%)
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $200 end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+114%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 15 $192 −$48 -25%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $76 −$4 -5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $177 +$4 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $81 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$5 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -48%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$4 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $45 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $40 +$67 +167%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $157 +$4 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -35%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$10 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of June? Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$4 -17%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Jun 13 $101 −$12 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $45 −$3 -6%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $5 −$1 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $182 −$35 -19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +107%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$1 -22%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 +$2 +7%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.30 (High) in 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $5 6m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 11m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $3 46m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $2 47m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $5 1h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $2 1h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $5 1h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $5 2h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $13 2h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $0 3h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $14 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.22 · official $310.24 (match) · 2332 history records