Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x4906…4529 sports 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-7%) realized −$18 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%71W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$24
other 29% −$5
world 3% +$1
finance 1% +$1
politics 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 100 -8.3% -17.1% 71% 39% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 39% -17.1%
10% -25.0% 23% -25.0%
15% -32.2% 10% -32.3%
20% -38.9% 4% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses71 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)100 / 106
History coverage129d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BIG vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Phantom (BO3) - Parken Challenger Champions Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Winter Olympic" or "Winter Olympics" this week? (Febru Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs MASONIC (BO3) - Parken Challenger Champions Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: WHITEBIRD vs 5Actors (BO3) - IZI WEX Group A Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-02-22? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-02-25? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
VCU Rams vs. Saint Louis Billikens Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Acend (BO3) - European Pro League Series 5 Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Bulls Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Idaho Vandals vs. Eastern Washington Eagles Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Serie Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Team Novaq (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffs Mar 14 $2 $0 +3%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 14 $2 $0 +9%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 13 $2 $0 +18%
Buffalo Bulls vs. Akron Zips Mar 13 $2 $0 +3%
Providence Friars vs. St. John's Red Storm Mar 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 11 $1 $0 +30%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $1 $0 -33%
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Mar 05 $1 $0 -0%
Hornets vs. Celtics Mar 05 $3 +$1 +27%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Mar 05 $2 $0 +12%
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. James Madison Dukes Mar 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $2 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Cl Mar 04 $2 $0 +30%
Counter-Strike: FC Famalicão Esports vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - CCT Europe C Mar 04 $1 $0 +14%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 04 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Players (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: The Otter Side vs Crusaders (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 03 $5 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stag Mar 03 $6 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 03 $4 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs b52team (BO3) - IZI WEX Group B Mar 03 $3 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 03 $6 $0 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 03 $6 $0 +7%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le Mar 03 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs FOLHA AMARELA (BO3) - CCT South Amer Mar 03 $2 −$1 -40%
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Idaho State Bengals (W) Mar 03 $1 $0 +49%
Lamar Cardinals vs. Houston Christian Huskies Mar 03 $1 $0 +22%
Celtics vs. Bucks Mar 03 $9 $0 +4%
Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (W) Mar 02 $4 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs WW Team (BO3) - Exort Meteor Playoffs Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 02 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 1h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 4¢ $62 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 106d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Team Novaq (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffs SELL illwill 100¢ $2 106d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Team Novaq (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffs BUY illwill 97¢ $2 106d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 106d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 106d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 92¢ $2 106d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 107d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies BUY Mavericks 85¢ $2 107d
Buffalo Bulls vs. Akron Zips BUY Akron Zips 97¢ $2 108d
Providence Friars vs. St. John's Red Storm BUY St. Johns Red Storm 99¢ $2 108d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 108d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 108d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 111d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 111d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 111d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY ECSTATIC 63¢ $1 115d
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 115d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Acend (BO3) - European Pro League Series 5 BUY KOLESIE 93¢ $3 115d
Hornets vs. Celtics BUY Hornets 79¢ $3 115d
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions SELL Ohio State Buckeyes 90¢ $3 115d
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions BUY Ohio State Buckeyes 80¢ $2 115d
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. James Madison Dukes SELL James Madison Dukes 96¢ $2 115d
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. James Madison Dukes BUY James Madison Dukes 92¢ $2 116d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 116d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.21 · official $101.21 (match) · 231 history records