Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4904…f4ef other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$20
politics 27% −$14
sports 16% −$8
crypto 6% −$12
world 5% −$7
economics 4% −$3
culture 3% −$4
tech 3% −$4
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.1% -10.5% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 66 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 119 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 140 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 121
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage103d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $267 $0 +0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $58 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha Jun 19 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $115 −$2 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $55 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $324 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $59 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $99 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $46 −$1 -3%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $253 +$1 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $221 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 10 $105 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $109 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 07 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 06 $63 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 05 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 05 $52 $0 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $39 2h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 6h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 6h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 14h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $51 15h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $51 22h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $40 23h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 27h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $51 27h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $51 33h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha SELL No 92¢ $39 34h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 95¢ $40 41h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $51 42h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL No 96¢ $12 2d
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY No 96¢ $12 2d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $38 2d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $46 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $46 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $45 3d
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 90¢ $36 3d
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $45 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.52 · official $48.52 (match) · 488 history records