Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x4903…2b9b other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$66 (+44%) realized +$89 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +145% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +104% what you keep after slip
Net edge+104%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$11
other 15% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+121.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +144.8% +121.5% 50% 50% +72.2%
≤30d 8 +144.8% +121.5% 50% 50% +72.2%
≤90d 8 +144.8% +121.5% 50% 50% +72.2%
all 8 +144.8% +121.5% 50% 50% +72.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +121.5% 50% +72.2%
10% +100.3% 50% +55.7%
15% +81.0% 50% +40.6%
20% +63.2% 50% +26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +145% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$6 · ×4.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.03 per $1 lost it wins $4.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 65¢ 74¢ $34 $39 +$5 (+15%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ 10¢ $29 $6 −$23 (-79%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 +$39 +786%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $25 +$27 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $2 +$15 +596%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $25 +$17 +67%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 51m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 65¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $15 6h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $25 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.40 · official $45.40 (match) · 15 history records