Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4903…f176 crypto 401 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$289 (+8%) realized +$260 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%236W / 162L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$242
14 days+$249
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 +9.0% -1.3% 84% 84% -1.7%
≤30d 211 +6.9% -3.3% 77% 77% -2.5%
≤90d 395 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 59% -3.6%
all 398 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 59% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 59% -3.7%
10% -18.0% 58% -12.9%
15% -25.9% 32% -21.3%
20% -33.1% 26% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$260
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses236 / 162
Open positions3
Markets (closed)398 / 401
History coverage125d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 75¢ 98¢ $42 $54 +$13 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 76¢ 96¢ $42 $52 +$11 (+26%)
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 80¢ 96¢ $26 $32 +$5 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $42 +$12 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$13 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$9 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$12 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$12 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$12 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$10 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $42 +$12 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $42 +$13 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $42 +$15 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$8 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$5 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$6 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$7 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$8 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$7 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$8 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$5 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$4 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$6 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$5 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$4 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$6 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$5 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$6 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$7 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$5 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$5 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$6 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $27 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $42 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $42 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $42 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $42 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $42 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $42 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $42 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $42 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $42 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $42 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $37 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $42 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $42 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $42 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $42 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $42 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $42 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $42 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $42 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $21 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $21 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $21 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $21 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $21 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $21 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $21 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $21 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.50 · official $136.18 · 934 history records