Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
48 0x48fc…3837 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,811 (-66%) realized −$9,027 · open −$784
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -93% what you keep after slip
Net edge-93%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,643per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8,197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-92.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -91.2% -92.0% 0% 0% -90.1%
≤30d 6 -91.2% -92.0% 0% 0% -90.1%
≤90d 6 -91.2% -92.0% 0% 0% -90.1%
all 6 -91.2% -92.0% 0% 0% -90.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -92.0% 0% -90.1%
10% -92.8% 0% -91.0%
15% -93.5% 0% -91.9%
20% -94.1% 0% -92.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -91% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1,236 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,962
Realized−$9,027
Unrealized−$784
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,643
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 30¢ 26¢ $1,792 $1,526 −$265 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? No 5¢ 2¢ $953 $435 −$518 (-54%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 19 $66 −$49 -74%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 19 $1,734 −$1,484 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 19 $5,235 −$4,591 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $426 −$399 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $438 −$410 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $512 −$481 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 2¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 24¢ $258 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $250 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 4¢ $641 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $645 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 24¢ $576 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $583 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $35 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 38¢ $1,043 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 7¢ $319 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $418 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $429 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $512 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,028 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $986 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,000 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 48¢ $4,235 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,734 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $383 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,061 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,961.61 · official $1,961.61 (match) · 27 history records