Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x48fc…eca0 other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$11
politics 17% −$6
economics 6% −$2
sports 3% −$20
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 17% 17% -9.1%
≤30d 19 -0.0% -9.5% 21% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 7% -9.6%
all 108 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 7% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage89d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $189 $189 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$11 +101%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $638 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $108 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $350 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $764 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $290 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $275 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $274 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $279 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $297 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $266 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 03 $572 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $298 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $272 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $277 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $296 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $528 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $274 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $272 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $287 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $576 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $10 31h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 34h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 3d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $189 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 7d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $55 8d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $55 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 10d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 10d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $62 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $62 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 17d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.82 · official $264.82 (match) · 332 history records