Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48f8…36db other 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$204 (-4%) realized −$269 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%44W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$842
14 days−$472
30 days−$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$262
sports 18% +$268
crypto 2% −$122
politics 2% −$35
world 1% −$36
tech 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +1.8% -7.9% 30% 28% -43.4%
≤30d 155 -11.4% -19.8% 23% 22% -16.1%
≤90d 155 -11.4% -19.8% 23% 22% -16.1%
all 167 +3.5% -6.4% 26% 26% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 26% -14.3%
10% -15.3% 25% -22.5%
15% -23.5% 25% -30.0%
20% -31.0% 22% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$22 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized−$269
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses44 / 123
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions8
Markets (closed)167 / 176
History coverage228d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $100 $151 +$51 (+51%)
Japan to win the second half? Yes 51¢ 90¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+75%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 19¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+90%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $15 $18 +$2 (+17%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 100¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+212%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $30 −$9 -30%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$62 +202%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $15 −$3 -22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$24 +48%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$30 +60%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $31 +$46 +152%
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$13 +262%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $30 +$37 +122%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$21 +206%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$45 +442%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 41¢ $21 1m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 14m
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 30m
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 30m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $14 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 26h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $15 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 28h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.58 · official $266.11 (match) · 356 history records