Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x48f7…880a politics 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$14
politics 33% −$15
sports 14% +$39
economics 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$3
tech 3% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 109 +5.0% -5.0% 8% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 6% -9.5%
10% -14.1% 6% -18.2%
15% -22.4% 5% -26.1%
20% -30.0% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×11.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage132d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $190 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $183 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $186 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,204 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $288 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $346 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $287 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $614 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $302 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,148 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $361 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $277 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $363 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $269 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $318 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 08 $353 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $292 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 08 $359 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $331 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $278 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $276 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $249 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $362 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 04 $259 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $256 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $29 10h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $29 23h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $39 9d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 22d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $181 27d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $181 27d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $235 29d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $235 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $182 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $182 30d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $177 31d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $177 32d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $216 33d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $216 33d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 33d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 36d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $180 36d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $180 36d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $188 36d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $188 38d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $190 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 336 history records