Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48f7…f949 crypto 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,589 (-4%) realized −$1,589 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate63%219W / 130L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$554
7 days−$554
14 days−$554
30 days−$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$2,026
finance 4% −$28
politics 1% −$38
other 1% −$140
sports 0% −$75
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -44.3% -49.6% 29% 24% -46.6%
≤30d 21 -44.3% -49.6% 29% 24% -46.6%
≤90d 349 -9.5% -18.1% 63% 33% -13.6%
all 349 -9.5% -18.1% 63% 33% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 33% -13.6%
10% -25.9% 19% -21.9%
15% -33.1% 13% -29.4%
20% -39.7% 9% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$48 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,589
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses219 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)349 / 349
History coverage76d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 349 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $124 −$21 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $145 −$40 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $92 −$16 -18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $216 −$124 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$78 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$28 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $82 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $209 +$35 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 22 $83 −$30 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 22 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 22 $34 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 22 $20 +$18 +89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 22 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 22 $35 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 22 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 22 $30 +$2 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 16 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 16 $45 −$33 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 15 $364 −$339 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 15 $355 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 15 $180 −$177 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 15 $200 −$171 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 15 $117 −$231 -198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 15 $31 −$43 -138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 15 $342 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 15 $325 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 15 $286 +$40 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 15 $550 −$71 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 15 $20 +$11 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1171 history records