Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48f7…3aeb sports 543 markets active 0h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$722 (-2%) realized −$816 · open +$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%272W / 270L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$416est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$147
14 days+$81
30 days−$1,116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,547
other 0% −$36
world 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +18.9% +7.6% 58% 50% -3.9%
≤30d 74 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 41% -22.3%
≤90d 356 -5.0% -14.0% 50% 47% -17.1%
all 542 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 46% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 46% -17.2%
10% -22.5% 42% -25.1%
15% -30.0% 36% -32.4%
20% -36.9% 30% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$45 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$816
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses272 / 270
Est. fees paid−$416
Open positions1
Markets (closed)542 / 543
History coverage243d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 59¢ 100¢ $133 $227 +$94 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $641 −$35 -5%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $246 +$8 +3%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $43 +$57 +133%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $154 −$54 -35%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $73 +$27 +37%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $107 −$7 -7%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $93 −$93 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $78 −$77 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $54 +$46 +85%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $8 +$24 +300%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $77 +$23 +30%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $59 +$41 +69%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $87 +$13 +16%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $53 +$47 +88%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $33 +$67 +206%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $33 +$67 +206%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $116 +$84 +72%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $72 +$28 +39%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $88 +$48 +54%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $106 −$105 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $161 +$39 +24%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $107 −$106 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $95 −$94 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $231 +$24 +10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $37 +$63 +170%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $24 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $376 −$57 -15%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $103 +$97 +93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $19 −$18 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $70 −$69 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $72 −$11 -16%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $116 −$27 -23%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $29 −$28 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $270 −$268 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $151 −$150 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $79 −$78 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $109 −$109 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $219 +$71 +32%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $174 +$20 +11%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $262 +$138 +53%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $118 −$102 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 58¢ $59 23m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 61¢ $58 27m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 54¢ $17 36m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 50¢ $300 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $213 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Bald 51¢ $306 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 56¢ $170 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $200 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 57¢ $173 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 84¢ $84 3h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL MODUS 18¢ $43 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL MODUS 18¢ $11 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 62¢ $62 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.27 · official $227.27 (match) · 1799 history records