Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
48 0x48f6…f502 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$2
other 18% $0
politics 11% $0
finance 7% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 0% -8.9%
all 22 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×7.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.98 per $1 lost it wins $31.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage462d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $84 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $23 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $15 $0 +0%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $46 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $44 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $37 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $32 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $41 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $41 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $21 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $22 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $23 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $23 6d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $12 354d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.06 · official $46.06 (match) · 59 history records