Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x48f5…b5e0
other · 78 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$21 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$123
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses23 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)60 / 78
History coverage40d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 18 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$16
14 days+$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 36¢ 81¢ $8 $19 +$11 (+125%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+117%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 52¢ 54¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 49¢ 48¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 76¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 11¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-45%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Yes 27¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 33¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? Yes 18¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? Down $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 25¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? No 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $7 −$6 -83%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +128%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8 +$5 +68%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $7 +$7 +101%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +19%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $7 −$4 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $7 +$4 +53%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $9 +$5 +58%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $18 −$8 -46%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$6 -84%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 31 $5 −$2 -40%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang May 31 $5 $0 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $15 −$2 -11%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $5 +$3 +57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $10 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 +15%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 11 $10 +$8 +78%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $10 −$2 -16%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 08 $15 +$5 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$1 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 06 $5 −$1 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 06 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 06 $5 −$2 -42%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $8 −$2 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $5 −$1 -17%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $10 −$6 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $10 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$14
crypto 25% −$7
world 15% −$18
sports 13% +$9
economics 7% −$8
politics 3% $0
tech 2% −$4
finance 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $5 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $5 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $5 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $5 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 96¢ $4 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 96¢ $4 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 91¢ $7 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 59¢ $5 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $5 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 9h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 $1 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 82¢ $12 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 35¢ $5 25h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 52¢ $8 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 49¢ $7 28h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 32h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 40h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $6 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $6 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 49¢ $7 3d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $8 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $7 4d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 14¢ $1 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 58¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +26.6% +14.6% 78% 67% +12.3%
≤30d 35 -11.1% -19.5% 49% 37% -14.0%
≤90d 60 -17.4% -25.2% 38% 28% -17.7%
all 60 -17.4% -25.2% 38% 28% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 28% -17.7%
10% -32.4% 20% -25.6%
15% -38.9% 18% -32.8%
20% -44.9% 17% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.02 · official $123.02 (match) · 182 history records