Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48f2…7fdd sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$746 (+31%) realized +$747 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$205
7 days+$640
14 days+$753
30 days+$753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$116
other 38% +$740
world 4% −$99
crypto 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -18.2% -26.0% 42% 42% +17.8%
≤30d 25 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 44% +21.1%
≤90d 26 -16.3% -24.3% 42% 42% +21.1%
all 30 -21.8% -29.2% 37% 37% +20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 37% +20.5%
10% -36.0% 30% +9.0%
15% -42.2% 27% -1.5%
20% -47.9% 27% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$38 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$747
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage92d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 44¢ 44¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$7 +18%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $73 +$102 +140%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $48 +$14 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $68 +$81 +119%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $29 −$1 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 26? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $114 −$92 -81%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $691 +$888 +128%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $146 +$107 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $99 −$61 -62%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $55 +$53 +96%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $21 −$11 -56%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $73 +$58 +80%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $99 +$113 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 18? Mar 18 $6 −$5 -87%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $8 −$2 -21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 17? Mar 17 $1 $0 -48%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 17? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $36 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $51 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $30 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $73 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $99 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $63 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $48 27h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $36 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $37 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $68 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 59¢ $29 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $29 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 37h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 37h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 37h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $114 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $114 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $49 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,579 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 43¢ $689 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $105 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $146 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 17¢ $16 6d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $108 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.97 · official $129.01 (match) · 74 history records