Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48f0…76f1 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$519 (-16%) realized −$800 · open +$281
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$1,440now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$269
7 days−$775
14 days−$781
30 days−$981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$462
sports 6% −$200
world 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -58.7% -62.6% 10% 10% -57.9%
≤30d 15 -42.3% -47.8% 13% 13% -56.5%
≤90d 15 -42.3% -47.8% 13% 13% -56.5%
all 15 -42.3% -47.8% 13% 13% -56.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 13% -56.5%
10% -52.8% 13% -60.7%
15% -57.3% 13% -64.5%
20% -61.5% 13% -68.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$104 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,440
Realized−$800
Unrealized+$281
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage16d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $452 $533 +$81 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $279 $431 +$151 (+54%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $205 $280 +$75 (+37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $112 $109 −$4 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $110 $88 −$22 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 24 $321 −$269 -84%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $108 −$94 -86%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $255 −$106 -42%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $462 −$297 -64%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $102 +$193 +189%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $49 −$48 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 +$181 +353%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$98 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$39 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $116 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $52 2h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $52 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 47h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $139 47h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $82 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $97 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $38 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $120 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $38 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $149 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,440.03 · official $1,440.03 (match) · 75 history records