Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x48ef…26ad other 444 markets active 18h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$888 (+5%) realized +$906 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate63%182W / 109L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$1,595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days+$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$465
sports 16% +$816
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -36.0% -42.1% 42% 36% -47.6%
≤30d 81 -2.7% -11.9% 57% 49% -1.1%
≤90d 291 +4.6% -5.4% 63% 56% -7.5%
all 291 +4.6% -5.4% 63% 56% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 56% -7.5%
10% -14.4% 47% -16.3%
15% -22.7% 34% -24.4%
20% -30.3% 27% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$39 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,595
Realized+$906
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses182 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions153
Markets (closed)291 / 444
History coverage71d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 153 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $789 $780 −$9 (-1%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $372 $377 +$5 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 74¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Paraguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tunisia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 72¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 96¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Czechia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 96¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$3 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +146%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $650 +$256 +39%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $1,188 +$892 +75%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 28 $7 +$2 +32%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) May 25 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $10 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 17h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 98¢ $337 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 73¢ $3 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 25h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $778 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 91¢ $4 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 47h
Will Haiti reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 6d
Will Jordan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 6d
Will Iraq reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 6d
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $5 6d
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $3 6d
Will Panama reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $2 6d
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $2 6d
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $2 6d
Will Tunisia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $2 6d
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1 6d
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1 6d
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1 6d
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $1 6d
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $1 6d
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $1 6d
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $1 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 77¢ $1 6d
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $1 6d
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,595.41 · official $1,595.66 (match) · 1160 history records