Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
48 0x48ee…008c world 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24,240 (+19%) realized +$31,748 · open −$7,508
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%93W / 122L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$494est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$8,187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days−$393
14 days−$2,708
30 days−$2,869
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$26,952
finance 21% +$3,321
sports 11% −$4,503
other 6% −$614
politics 3% −$2,452
crypto 0% −$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.2% -31.4% 40% 40% -22.9%
≤30d 45 -16.7% -24.6% 56% 36% -22.3%
≤90d 166 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 34% +20.1%
all 215 -15.0% -23.1% 43% 34% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 34% +18.1%
10% -30.5% 28% +6.8%
15% -37.2% 20% -3.5%
20% -43.3% 13% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$561 vs −$183 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$8,187
Realized+$31,748
Unrealized−$7,508
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses93 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$494
Open positions44
Markets (closed)215 / 259
History coverage162d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $3,296 $3,023 −$273 (-8%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1,231 $1,243 +$12 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $1,457 $1,071 −$386 (-27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $400 $416 +$16 (+4%)
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Yes 19¢ 13¢ $563 $390 −$173 (-31%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $300 $225 −$75 (-25%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $160 $154 −$6 (-4%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 35¢ 16¢ $310 $146 −$164 (-53%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $260 $133 −$127 (-49%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $150 $128 −$22 (-15%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 39¢ 3¢ $1,866 $127 −$1,740 (-93%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $270 $122 −$148 (-55%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 15¢ $180 $117 −$63 (-35%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $108 $104 −$4 (-4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $223 $97 −$126 (-56%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $222 $60 −$162 (-73%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $130 $55 −$75 (-58%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $279 $42 −$237 (-85%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $171 −$166 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $1,213 −$187 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 19 $196 −$196 -100%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Jun 18 $18 +$15 +81%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,063 +$141 +13%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $25 +$11 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,535 −$2,135 -84%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,830 +$56 +3%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 16 $395 +$3 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $610 −$212 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $573 +$278 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $487 −$480 -98%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 13 $203 −$18 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $200 +$7 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $734 +$169 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $100 +$23 +23%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $630 +$105 +17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 08 $290 −$111 -38%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $450 +$183 +41%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $230 +$541 +235%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 04 $52 −$52 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1,242 −$1,242 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $100 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $400 +$30 +8%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $2,020 +$42 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $180 −$180 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 31 $2,181 +$972 +45%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 28 $301 +$10 +3%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $150 +$8 +5%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 28 $130 +$70 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $100 +$16 +16%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 27 $764 +$128 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 27 $179 −$173 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? May 27 $370 −$190 -51%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 26 $288 −$279 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $130 +$21 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 26 $137 +$57 +42%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $40 +$98 +245%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 21 $840 −$456 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $800 −$27 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 20 $145 −$145 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $171 2h
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $170 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $38 5d
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $33 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $410 5d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $507 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $72 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $82 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $160 5d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $160 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $36 7d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $36 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $174 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $174 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $127 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $127 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $231 7d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 20¢ $206 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $320 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $94 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $338 8d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 23¢ $102 8d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $95 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $95 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $208 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $290 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $500 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 3¢ $5 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $280 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,187.32 · official $8,187.32 (match) · 1220 history records