Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x48ee…0db4 sports 627 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,066 (+4%) realized +$7,239 · open −$173
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%291W / 334L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1,676est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,160
7 days+$1,472
14 days+$1,443
30 days+$3,036
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$6,557
crypto 9% −$4,540
other 7% +$2,838
world 0% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 47% +6.7%
≤30d 241 -8.2% -17.0% 43% 42% -5.0%
≤90d 489 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 47% -2.1%
all 625 -3.4% -12.6% 47% 46% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 46% -6.8%
10% -20.9% 46% -15.7%
15% -28.6% 44% -23.9%
20% -35.6% 41% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$221 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$727
Realized+$7,239
Unrealized−$173
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses291 / 334
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,676
Open positions3
Markets (closed)625 / 627
History coverage149d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 625 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 51¢ 50¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 42¢ $200 $36 −$164 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 295 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Aix en Provence: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $307 +$805 +262%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $405 +$273 +67%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $304 +$218 +72%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $405 +$322 +79%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $203 +$148 +73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $102 −$23 -23%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $202 +$101 +50%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $203 +$273 +134%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $465 +$416 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $448 +$1,012 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,000 −$560 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $507 −$500 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 14 $304 +$214 +70%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $210 +$137 +66%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $202 +$27 +13%
ITF Hurghada: Martyna Kubka vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson Jun 13 $221 −$220 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,112 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $356 −$350 -98%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $357 −$350 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $381 −$21 -6%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $906 +$1,138 +126%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $163 −$160 -98%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $202 −$15 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $307 −$300 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $304 +$213 +70%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 09 $202 +$72 +36%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $305 −$300 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $405 +$642 +158%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $1,032 −$1,020 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $204 +$346 +170%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $406 +$387 +95%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $810 +$569 +70%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 06 $406 −$400 -98%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 06 $405 −$400 -99%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $508 −$500 -98%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 05 $499 +$696 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 42¢ $203 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 12h
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Hyeon Chung 51¢ $203 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 16h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 43¢ $203 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 38h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 34¢ $102 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 41h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 55¢ $405 43h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 40¢ $153 43h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 57¢ $203 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $203 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Beatriz Haddad Maia 36¢ $78 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 45¢ $102 2d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 42¢ $203 3d
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 66¢ $202 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $102 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $465 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,460 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $448 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 44¢ $433 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 54¢ $507 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $727.08 · official $727.08 (match) · 1369 history records