Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
48 0x48ed…33be sports 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,357 (-16%) realized −$9,299 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%93W / 112L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$346est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$848
7 days−$185
14 days+$5,427
30 days+$4,518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$11,362
sports 40% −$355
other 5% +$3,543
politics 1% −$353
tech 0% −$185
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +20.5% +9.0% 55% 55% -13.2%
≤30d 133 +8.6% -1.8% 54% 53% +6.5%
≤90d 188 -3.2% -12.4% 47% 46% -7.1%
all 205 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 42% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 42% -19.5%
10% -25.3% 42% -27.2%
15% -32.5% 42% -34.2%
20% -39.1% 37% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -32% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$254 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized−$9,299
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses93 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$346
Open positions3
Markets (closed)205 / 208
History coverage369d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada leading at halftime? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $153 $157 +$4 (+2%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $204 $141 −$64 (-31%)
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 38¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $451 +$509 +113%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $217 +$339 +156%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $336 −$336 -100%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 16 $299 −$206 -69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $134 +$159 +119%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $205 −$75 -36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $693 −$686 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $285 −$281 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $193 +$190 +98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $301 −$295 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $23 +$12 +50%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Jun 13 $152 +$174 +114%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) Jun 13 $152 +$102 +68%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -56%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$95 +93%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 +$141 +139%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $101 +$91 +90%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $171 −$169 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $203 −$101 -50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $273 −$76 -28%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$142 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $304 +$213 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $101 +$74 +73%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $284 +$126 +44%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $152 +$124 +81%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $112 −$110 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 10 $213 +$266 +125%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $152 +$68 +45%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 09 $228 +$141 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $508 +$556 +109%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 09 $101 +$44 +44%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $203 +$186 +92%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $202 +$130 +64%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $203 +$181 +89%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $167 −$165 -99%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $152 −$150 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 08 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 08 $202 +$84 +42%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $172 −$170 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $152 +$86 +57%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $102 +$136 +133%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 07 $254 +$224 +88%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 07 $152 +$94 +62%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $152 +$136 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $86 +$104 +122%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $692 +$397 +58%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 07 $152 −$150 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $155 8m
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $112 9m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $254 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $112 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $105 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $37 2d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 22¢ $32 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $23 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $128 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $65 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $9 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 27¢ $45 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $22 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $134 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 16¢ $131 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $91 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $101 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $101 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $101 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $101 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $198 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $285 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $200 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $91 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.82 · official $408.82 (match) · 831 history records