Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x48eb…4add
crypto · 1117 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$33,542 -49%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33,542 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$33,542
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses804 / 616
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1420 / 1117
History coverage40d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day66.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1420 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30,867
7 days−$31,157
14 days−$31,421
30 days−$32,208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of January 26? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $369 $0 −$369 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $692 $0 −$692 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during t Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $369 −$369 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $692 −$692 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $329 −$329 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $520 −$520 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$158 -158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 2? Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$9 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $458 −$458 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$2,704
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $15 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $43 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $35 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $27 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 432 -72.9% -75.5% 22% 14% -90.7%
≤30d 850 -36.8% -42.8% 45% 31% -65.9%
≤90d 1420 -23.1% -30.5% 57% 39% -40.0%
all 1420 -23.1% -30.5% 57% 39% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.5% 39% -40.0%
10% ← realistic here -37.1% 21% -45.8%
15% -43.2% 11% -51.0%
20% -48.8% 7% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records