Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x48ea…cb19
world · 21 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$12 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$55
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)2 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day194.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 26¢ 46¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+78%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Yes 41¢ 60¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+46%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 89¢ 89¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 89¢ 83¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+82%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 62¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 64¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 89% +$7
crypto 7% −$1
finance 3% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 9m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $0 21m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $0 21m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $1 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 0% -15.9%
≤30d 2 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 0% -15.9%
≤90d 2 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 0% -15.9%
all 2 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 0% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover194.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 0% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 0% -24.0%
15% -28.9% 0% -31.3%
20% -35.9% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.33 · official $55.33 (match) · 194 history records