Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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48 0x48e7…d5f8 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 159d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$51,317 (+237%) realized +$53,173 · open −$1,856
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$7,394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 160d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 70% −$1,672
crypto 29% −$1,435
other 1% −$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.7% -19.2% 50% 50% -32.5%
≤30d 51 -43.4% -48.8% 33% 22% -30.5%
≤90d 53 -32.4% -38.8% 36% 25% -27.2%
all 57 -25.6% -32.7% 39% 26% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 26% -28.2%
10% ← realistic here -39.1% 14% -35.1%
15% -45.0% 14% -41.4%
20% -50.4% 11% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
42.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$61 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$7,394
Realized+$53,173
Unrealized−$1,856
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 35
Open positions8
Markets (closed)57 / 65
History coverage160d ⚠
Avg bet$333
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 45¢ 33¢ $3,580 $2,640 −$940 (-26%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 78¢ 88¢ $2,350 $2,625 +$275 (+12%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $2,279 $1,037 −$1,242 (-54%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $152 $565 +$413 (+271%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $161 $117 −$45 (-28%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $162 $99 −$62 (-38%)
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $76 $44 −$32 (-42%)
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $137 +$50 +36%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 27 $262 −$151 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $208 −$67 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $413 −$52 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $231 +$47 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $331 −$104 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $133 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $512 −$151 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $657 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $152 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $233 −$12 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $126 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $309 +$44 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $314 −$57 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $106 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $313 −$75 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 04 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 04 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $210 +$40 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$58 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $187 2h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL Yes 0¢ $110 2h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL Yes 0¢ $106 2h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 46h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $107 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $85 4d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 5d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 5d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,394.23 · official $7,434.23 (match) · 3500 history records