Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48e7…ac14 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$3
other 24% −$3
politics 23% +$1
crypto 7% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 13 -2.7% -11.9% 15% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 13 -2.7% -11.9% 15% 0% -10.3%
all 46 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 4% -9.9%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 88% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage274d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $47 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $18 −$2 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -22%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $26 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 29 $4 +$1 +37%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $3 $0 +2%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Sep 28 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Sep 23 $1 $0 +11%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 21 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $47 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $16 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $18 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $49 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $49 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $49 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $49 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $45 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $45 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $49 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records