Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
48 0x48e4…db33 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$77 (+10%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$6
other 41% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -14.7% -22.8% 55% 50% +0.9%
≤30d 22 -14.7% -22.8% 55% 50% +0.9%
≤90d 22 -14.7% -22.8% 55% 50% +0.9%
all 22 -14.7% -22.8% 55% 50% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 50% +0.9%
10% -30.2% 50% -8.8%
15% -36.9% 36% -17.6%
20% -43.1% 14% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J Jun 20 $104 +$10 +10%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi Jun 20 $20 +$5 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$14 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +60%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $91 +$22 +24%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $19 +$9 +46%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$32 +32%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$39 +49%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $20 +$15 +73%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $19 +$9 +48%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $34 +$76 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J BUY Sofia Johnson 91¢ $104 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 54¢ $30 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 67¢ $20 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 80¢ $20 5h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 22¢ $2 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $51 8h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 43¢ $10 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 72¢ $35 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 23h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 80¢ $91 25h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 68¢ $19 29h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 57¢ $12 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 45h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 83¢ $71 45h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 46¢ $9 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 4d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 57¢ $20 4d
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 78¢ $9 4d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 67¢ $19 4d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 53¢ $10 4d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 100¢ $110 4d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 30¢ $34 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $56 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $50.00 · 37 history records