Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
48 0x48e3…03cc sports 68 markets active 3h ago coverage 510d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10,259 (+22%) realized +$10,259 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate63%43W / 25L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,926
7 days+$9,365
14 days+$9,380
30 days+$9,380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 33% +$8,457
sports 28% +$935
politics 19% +$642
other 15% +$742
world 5% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +3.9% -6.0% 64% 59% +32.3%
≤30d 43 +1.5% -8.2% 63% 56% +31.4%
≤90d 43 +1.5% -8.2% 63% 56% +31.4%
all 68 -0.8% -10.3% 63% 51% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 51% +13.5%
10% -18.9% 37% +2.6%
15% -26.7% 31% -7.3%
20% -33.9% 22% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$610) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$368 vs −$198 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

510d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses43 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage510d
Avg bet$689
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,226 +$973 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $155 −$153 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $251 −$250 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $256 +$144 +56%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $201 +$199 +99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $422 −$219 -52%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $5,933 +$6,846 +115%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $1,140 +$132 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $266 +$525 +197%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $268 +$128 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $269 −$265 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $157 +$41 +26%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $52 +$47 +91%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $268 +$32 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $113 −$110 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $173 +$35 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $34 −$33 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$16 +52%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $40 +$26 +64%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $116 +$112 +96%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $133 +$65 +49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $905 +$601 +66%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $907 −$844 -93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $304 −$200 -66%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $357 +$426 +119%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1,292 +$414 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $78 +$22 +29%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $2,331 +$1,276 +55%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $123 −$115 -93%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,950 −$353 -18%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $389 +$76 +20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $457 +$18 +4%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $1,293 +$127 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $438 +$181 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 09 $192 +$8 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 08 $114 −$4 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 06 $206 +$24 +11%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 05 $13 −$13 -96%
New Mexico vs. Marquette Mar 22 $3,648 −$181 -5%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 21 $4,445 −$61 -1%
UC San Diego vs. Michigan Mar 21 $2,074 +$990 +48%
Arkansas vs. Kansas Mar 21 $400 +$451 +113%
New Pope in 2025? Mar 21 $1,816 −$23 -1%
Will Trump say 'Zelenskyy' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Pope Francis step down before July? Mar 05 $2,279 +$70 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $106 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,114 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $155 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $251 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $203 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $256 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $369 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 26h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $10,600 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $107 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $80 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $160 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $65 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $43 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $203 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $51 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $138 33h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $226 33h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $38 33h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $36 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 582 history records