Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
48 0x48e2…d289 crypto 662 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$341 (+3%) realized +$337 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate74%486W / 175L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$13
14 days+$143
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$166
world 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -3.4% -12.6% 73% 73% -8.7%
≤30d 492 -0.9% -10.4% 75% 74% -7.7%
≤90d 659 -1.5% -10.9% 73% 73% -8.3%
all 661 -0.8% -10.3% 74% 73% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 73% -7.8%
10% -18.9% 68% -16.6%
15% -26.7% 24% -24.7%
20% -33.9% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$337
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses486 / 175
Open positions1
Markets (closed)661 / 662
History coverage114d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 661 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 70¢ 78¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$29 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$8 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$13 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$14 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$9 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$12 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$14 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$20 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$14 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$7 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$8 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$11 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$16 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$13 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$8 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$8 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $35 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $36 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $36 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $36 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $36 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $36 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $35 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $36 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $36 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $36 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $36 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.75 · official $34.75 · 1191 history records