Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x48e0…0d1f other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+0%) realized +$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$14
politics 33% −$11
sports 4% +$145
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 +2.2% -7.5% 10% 5% -9.3%
all 103 +2.5% -7.2% 14% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 10% -9.1%
10% -16.1% 9% -17.8%
15% -24.2% 7% -25.8%
20% -31.6% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×22.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.56 per $1 lost it wins $3.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage113d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $315 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $330 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $303 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $288 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 24 $298 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $247 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $269 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $271 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $287 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $260 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $264 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $297 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $277 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $296 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $212 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $274 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $244 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $232 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $252 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $245 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 21 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $400 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $245 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $277 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $461 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $514 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $302 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $240 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $316 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 6h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 6h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 33h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 33h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 21d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $288 22d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 27d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 27d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $298 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $298 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $247 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $247 29d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $269 29d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $269 29d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 29d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 30d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $271 30d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $271 30d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 313 history records