trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -4.1% | -13.2% | 0% | 0% | -13.1% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +7.0% | -3.2% | 33% | 33% | -12.9% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -22.8% | -30.1% | 38% | 23% | -16.3% |
| all | 13 | -22.8% | -30.1% | 38% | 23% | -16.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.1% | 23% | -16.3% |
| 10% | -36.8% | 23% | -24.3% |
| 15% | -42.9% | 15% | -31.6% |
| 20% | -48.5% | 8% | -38.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $55 | $54 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $53 | $53 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $29 | $29 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Jun 25 | $35 | −$2 | -5% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jun 25 | $56 | −$4 | -7% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $54 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $59 | −$3 | -6% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | +22% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $2 | +$1 | +37% |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage | May 21 | $2 | +$1 | +55% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | May 11 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? | May 11 | $4 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 11 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 11 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A | May 11 | $3 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 11 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |