Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48df…e4c9 sports 1406 markets active 2d ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$257 (+1%) realized +$252 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%737W / 932L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,090
7 days−$4,835
14 days−$1,207
30 days−$934
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$3,936
sports 44% −$178
world 0% +$10
politics 0% +$11
crypto 0% +$3
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 299 -95.0% -95.5% 2% 2% -64.5%
≤30d 345 -72.9% -75.5% 8% 6% -16.6%
≤90d 1402 -18.8% -26.5% 42% 34% -15.2%
all 1669 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 36% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 36% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 33% -21.5%
15% -36.3% 30% -29.1%
20% -42.5% 29% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$252
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses737 / 932
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1669 / 1406
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1669 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $80 $68 −$11 (-14%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $57 +$17 (+43%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 44¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 51¢ 52¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Torino FC win on 2026-02-22? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Kraken Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
New Delhi: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Rio Noguchi Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Heat vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Rio Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Francesco Passaro Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-11? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-28? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonseca Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
CEHL: Vitkovice vs. Dynamo Pardubice Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-21? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-8.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-22? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-02-28? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2025-12-06? Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-01? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-02-13? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-02-22? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Butler Bulldogs: O/U 139.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Series Australia vs. India, Women: Australia vs India Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-02-28? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England win? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Altmaier vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Qatar Open, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Roberto Carballes Bae Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Penguins vs. Rangers Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Erste Bank Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $26 41h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 44¢ $20 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 51¢ $30 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND SELL 56¢ $30 47h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 51¢ $15 47h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $13 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 95¢ $38 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 95¢ $16 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 50¢ $24 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 54¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,751 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,604 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 24¢ $12 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 43¢ $20 3d
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $50 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 12¢ $6 3d
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 27¢ $15 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 26¢ $11 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AN BUY 46¢ $25 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 3¢ $3 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $12 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.18 · official $247.18 (match) · 3500 history records