Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
48 0x48de…0c51 crypto 1395 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$921 (+13%) realized +$795 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%525W / 1125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day45.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$665
7 days−$572
14 days−$322
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% −$195
politics 28% +$527
other 19% +$473
sports 10% −$39
world 5% +$60
tech 4% +$31
economics 2% +$70
finance 0% −$2
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 373 -71.0% -73.7% 10% 9% -40.8%
≤30d 684 -36.6% -42.6% 26% 23% -9.6%
≤90d 1650 -21.0% -28.5% 32% 28% -9.5%
all 1650 -21.0% -28.5% 32% 28% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 28% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 25% -18.2%
15% -41.6% 22% -26.1%
20% -47.3% 19% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$746
Realized+$795
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses525 / 1125
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1650 / 1395
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day45.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 1650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? No 60¢ 72¢ $68 $81 +$14 (+20%)
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 60¢ 40¢ $106 $70 −$35 (-33%)
Will "Microsoft" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 60¢ 58¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-3%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? No 63¢ 74¢ $35 $40 +$6 (+16%)
Will "Woman" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 31¢ 56¢ $22 $39 +$17 (+78%)
Will MrBeast say "Wife" during his next gaming YouTube video? No 60¢ 58¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will "Walkable" be in the headlines this week? No 59¢ 57¢ $38 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? No 60¢ 74¢ $29 $36 +$7 (+22%)
Will "Water" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 30¢ 55¢ $19 $35 +$16 (+80%)
Will "Samsung" be in the headlines this week? No 54¢ 56¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Will "Silly" be in the headlines this week? No 60¢ 56¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-8%)
Will "Hormuz" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No 31¢ 42¢ $19 $26 +$7 (+39%)
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week? No 28¢ 56¢ $12 $25 +$13 (+102%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? Yes 43¢ 45¢ $23 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference? No 56¢ 58¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+4%)
Will Trump say "No No No Donald" in June? No 63¢ 74¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+19%)
Will "Inflation" be in the headlines this week? No 35¢ 60¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+71%)
Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next PMQ? Yes 10¢ 52¢ $3 $14 +$11 (+420%)
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 57¢ 52¢ $13 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will "Television" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 49¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will "Korea" or "Korean" be in the headlines this week? No 35¢ 55¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+57%)
Will Starmer say "Condolences" during the next PMQ? Yes 10¢ 49¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+390%)
Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next PMQ? Yes 10¢ 52¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+420%)
Will Trump say "Big League" or "Bigly" in June? No 35¢ 50¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+44%)
Will "Reform" be in the headlines this week? No 40¢ 74¢ $5 $8 +$4 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 465 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Norfolk State Spartans vs. Howard Bison Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iowa" during National Agriculture Day events? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -68%
Avalanche vs. Jets Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Canucks vs. Kraken Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. DePaul Blue Demons Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Belmont Bruins vs. Illinois State Redbirds Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Jun 17 $1 +$3 +197%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bill Ackman say "Shareholder" 3+ times during the X Space event o Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Ball State Cardinals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Alien" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
DePaul Blue Demons vs. Butler Bulldogs Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 4AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -88%
Bulls vs. Hornets Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. Queens (NC) Royals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Robotic" or "Robotics" during the Fighting Ol Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Jun 17 $10 −$11 -109%
Sabres vs. Devils Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Devils Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -124%
Hornets vs. Nets Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bradley Braves vs. Belmont Bruins Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Montana Grizzlies vs. Eastern Washington Eagles Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY Yes 39¢ $1 16m
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY No 60¢ $12 16m
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY No 60¢ $47 16m
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY No 60¢ $47 16m
Will MrBeast say "Wife" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 28m
Will MrBeast say "Wife" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY No 60¢ $43 28m
Will "Microsoft" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY No 60¢ $29 58m
Will "Microsoft" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY Yes 39¢ $1 59m
Will "Microsoft" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY No 60¢ $29 59m
Will "Samsung" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 54¢ $1 1h
Will "Samsung" be in the headlines this week? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will "Samsung" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 54¢ $28 1h
Will "Silly" be in the headlines this week? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will "Silly" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 60¢ $31 1h
Will "Walkable" be in the headlines this week? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will "Walkable" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 59¢ $19 1h
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of BUY No 57¢ $7 1h
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of BUY No 57¢ $7 1h
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? SELL No 75¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc BUY No 56¢ $11 2h
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc BUY No 56¢ $11 2h
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? SELL No 46¢ $9 2h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 17h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 17h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? BUY No 64¢ $16 17h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? BUY No 63¢ $19 17h
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? SELL No 30¢ $2 18h
Will Starmer say "Shadow" during the next PMQ? BUY No 20¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $745.50 · official $731.35 · 3500 history records