Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
48 0x48de…95ba sports 862 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,338 (-1%) realized −$5,531 · open +$193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%405W / 456L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$544per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$5,130est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 168d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$9,729
other 10% −$1,175
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +2.8% -7.0% 56% 48% -6.4%
≤30d 167 -2.6% -11.9% 49% 44% -5.6%
≤90d 499 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 47% -6.3%
all 861 -3.1% -12.3% 47% 45% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 45% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 43% -19.1%
15% -28.4% 39% -26.9%
20% -35.4% 34% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$696) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$447 vs −$421 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$493
Realized−$5,531
Unrealized+$193
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses405 / 456
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$5,130
Open positions1
Markets (closed)861 / 862
History coverage168d
Avg bet$544
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 861 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 52¢ 86¢ $300 $493 +$193 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 353 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $48 +$85 +176%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $132 −$130 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Bellucci vs Bublik Jun 16 $43 +$5 +11%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $298 −$254 -86%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$2 -8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $729 −$722 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,300 +$38 +3%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $211 −$191 -91%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $3,117 −$1,113 -36%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $998 −$978 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,015 +$1,020 +100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $828 +$474 +57%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,618 −$1,602 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $964 +$655 +68%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $822 −$806 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,515 +$723 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1,216 −$1,200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,507 +$595 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1,117 +$1,091 +98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,114 −$1,100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,155 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $513 +$2,498 +487%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1,016 +$1,057 +104%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $977 −$960 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1,013 −$711 -70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,311 +$416 +32%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,015 +$393 +39%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2,071 +$355 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $914 −$900 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $509 −$500 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1,528 −$750 -49%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,001 +$647 +65%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,002 +$648 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $446 −$436 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,505 +$431 +29%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $637 +$951 +149%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $681 +$237 +35%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $662 +$963 +146%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $508 +$173 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $571 +$599 +105%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang Jun 11 $389 +$183 +47%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $223 +$166 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 40¢ $132 34h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 93¢ $133 34h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 33¢ $48 34h
Set 2 Winner: Bellucci vs Bublik SELL Bellucci 99¢ $48 34h
Set 2 Winner: Bellucci vs Bublik BUY Bellucci 89¢ $43 35h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 11¢ $43 35h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 73¢ $298 39h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Max Schoenhaus 17¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $729 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $728 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $608 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 41¢ $609 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $690 3d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 32¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 5¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 52¢ $211 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 4¢ $205 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 37¢ $1,796 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 66¢ $1,799 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 34¢ $998 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $1,321 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.27 · official $481.73 · 1646 history records