Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x48da…f6b3
other · 242 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$91 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$91 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage133d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 241 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $434 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $341 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $198 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $537 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $127 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $345 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $895 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $157 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $301 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $419 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $210 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $396 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 03 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $410 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $270 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $429 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $478 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $236 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $214 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$38
sports 24% −$23
politics 10% −$9
crypto 5% −$5
economics 5% −$6
culture 5% −$7
world 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 3h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 11h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 12h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 14h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 16h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 17h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 19h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 20h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $60 22h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 24h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 25h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 30h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 41h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 43h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 3d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $61 3d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $51 3d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 4d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.79 · official $58.79 (match) · 1366 history records