Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

48 0x48d9…d72d other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$80 (+10%) realized +$81 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown98%max

Avg bet$113per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+4.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+15.1%	+4.1%	80%	80%	+2.3%
≤30d	5	+15.1%	+4.1%	80%	80%	+2.3%
≤90d	5	+15.1%	+4.1%	80%	80%	+2.3%
all	5	+15.1%	+4.1%	80%	80%	+2.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.1%	80%	+2.3%
10%	-5.9%	60%	-7.5%
15%	-14.9%	60%	-16.4%
20%	-23.3%	20%	-24.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$97 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$221

Realized+$81

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage2d

Avg bet$113

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown98%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	69¢	$110	$110	+$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	90¢	88¢	$112	$110	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$152	+$72	+47%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$97	−$97	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$152	+$72	+47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	+$10	+69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$150	+$17	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$111	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$113	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$97	16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$127	16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	66¢	$25	19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$15	22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$152	22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$150	40h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.64 · official $220.66 (match) · 13 history records