Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
48 0x48d9…227f sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$811 (-2%) realized −$811 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$239
7 days−$507
14 days−$1,882
30 days−$2,752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$6,144
other 41% +$4,660
crypto 14% +$87
world 1% −$457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.1% -17.8% 44% 44% -14.0%
≤30d 36 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 42% -22.1%
≤90d 44 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 43% -16.7%
all 84 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 40% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 40% -14.7%
10% -21.9% 40% -22.9%
15% -29.5% 39% -30.3%
20% -36.4% 37% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$518) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$487 vs −$368 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$811
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage592d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $795 −$694 -87%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $398 −$389 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $713 +$480 +67%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $513 −$501 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $518 +$1,487 +287%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $633 −$621 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $793 +$709 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $499 +$296 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $807 +$693 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $451 +$357 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $519 −$509 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $511 −$500 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $617 −$606 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $494 −$484 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $509 −$502 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $521 +$593 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $534 −$528 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $518 +$215 +41%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 09 $399 −$391 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,152 +$489 +42%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $404 −$399 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $853 −$842 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $498 +$604 +121%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $618 +$470 +76%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $467 −$457 -98%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 05 $706 −$693 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 05 $262 −$258 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $244 +$209 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $173 +$392 +226%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $1,354 −$1,346 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 26 $301 −$294 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $588 −$577 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $116 −$114 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $476 +$444 +93%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 20 $517 +$1,017 +197%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $419 −$411 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $686 +$781 +114%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $496 +$389 +78%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $115 +$500 +437%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $96 −$93 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $363 −$355 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $163 +$379 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 26 $383 −$381 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Feb 26 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 26 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 26 $100 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Feb 26 $194 +$229 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Co BUY 7¢ $101 49m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 6¢ $101 59m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $3 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $793 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $398 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $1,193 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $713 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 22¢ $288 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $513 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,004 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $518 32h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $2 36h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $630 36h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win BUY 1¢ $16 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR I BUY 12¢ $502 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,502 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $793 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $795 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $499 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $1,499 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $807 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $808 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $451 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $519 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $1 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $1 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $509 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $617 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $494 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Wi BUY 16¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $98.51 · 185 history records