Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
48 0x48d9…db94 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$18
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$8
crypto 24% +$18
world 12% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 50% -1.1%
≤30d 9 -13.2% -21.5% 44% 44% -3.7%
≤90d 9 -13.2% -21.5% 44% 44% -3.7%
all 9 -13.2% -21.5% 44% 44% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 44% -3.7%
10% -29.0% 44% -12.9%
15% -35.8% 22% -21.3%
20% -42.1% 22% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$14 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage8d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 46¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$15 +26%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 17 $52 +$13 +24%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$46 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.30 · official $87.30 (match) · 27 history records