Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48d6…9bc9 crypto 1263 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+1%) realized +$76 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%811W / 447L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$38
14 days−$28
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$209
other 2% +$3
world 1% +$15
finance 0% +$8
economics 0% +$24
politics 0% −$5
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 856 +2.2% -7.5% 73% 72% -9.9%
≤30d 865 +1.9% -7.8% 72% 72% -9.9%
≤90d 1258 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 64% -10.6%
all 1258 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 64% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 64% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 61% -19.2%
15% -26.4% 46% -27.0%
20% -33.6% 23% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses811 / 447
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1258 / 1263
History coverage67d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 26¢ 50¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+94%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 74¢ 49¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 66¢ 50¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 69¢ 42¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-38%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 238 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$9 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$6 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$21 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$5 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$8 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$23 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$13 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$10 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$8 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$12 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$11 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$8 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$15 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$10 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$6 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$3 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$15 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$5 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$16 +69%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$11 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$7 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$5 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$6 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$12 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$9 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$12 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$10 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$6 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$7 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $9 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $13 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $14 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $9 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $17 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $14 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.63 · official $55.58 · 2774 history records