Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x48d1…8fe6 sports 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$64 (+1%) realized −$18 · open +$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%34W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$503
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$139
other 2% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -57.6% -61.7% 11% 11% -55.7%
≤90d 79 +12.6% +1.9% 43% 42% -9.9%
all 79 +12.6% +1.9% 43% 42% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 42% -9.9%
10% -7.9% 42% -18.5%
15% -16.8% 42% -26.4%
20% -24.9% 38% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$94 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses34 / 45
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage84d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) T1 41¢ 74¢ $100 $183 +$82 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $204 −$6 -3%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $107 −$21 -20%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $17 −$16 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $97 +$101 +104%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Winthrop University (+1.5) May 28 $202 −$33 -16%
Game Handicap: KBM (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming Academy (+1.5) May 28 $203 +$148 +73%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner May 27 $237 −$236 -99%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) May 25 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $188 −$186 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 24 $216 −$213 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $113 +$87 +76%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $255 +$145 +57%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 23 $86 +$32 +37%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $21 +$59 +284%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Esprit Shōnen (+1.5) May 22 $210 +$106 +50%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $133 +$67 +50%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 20 $113 +$87 +76%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 19 $203 +$137 +67%
Game Handicap: EST (-2.5) vs RED Academy (+2.5) May 19 $15 +$10 +70%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 18 $203 +$157 +78%
Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Dignitas (+1.5) May 18 $208 +$153 +73%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 17 $49 −$39 -81%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $205 +$115 +56%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) May 16 $102 +$298 +291%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $107 −$5 -5%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $116 +$219 +188%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P May 15 $26 −$13 -48%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier May 15 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner May 15 $7 −$7 -97%
LoL: Myth Esports vs The Bandits - Game 1 Winner May 14 $404 −$192 -48%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 13 $200 −$198 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) May 10 $102 −$101 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) May 10 $204 −$202 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner May 09 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 08 $101 +$58 +57%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 08 $101 +$71 +70%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 08 $113 +$86 +76%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $23 −$23 -99%
LoL: Conviction vs NRG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers Leag May 06 $206 −$205 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 06 $204 −$201 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) BUY T1 41¢ $102 1h
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) SELL Eintracht Spandau 53¢ $199 18d
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Eintracht Spandau 53¢ $204 18d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $81 21d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $4 21d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $1 21d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $24 21d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL G2 Esports 44¢ $87 21d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 53¢ $107 21d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 15¢ $8 27d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 15¢ $4 27d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 19¢ $39 27d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 13¢ $17 27d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $101 28d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $198 29d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 48¢ $21 29d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 48¢ $76 29d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $203 29d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 29d
Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Winthrop University (+1.5) SELL NRG Esports 49¢ $73 31d
Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Winthrop University (+1.5) SELL NRG Esports 49¢ $97 31d
Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Winthrop University (+1.5) BUY NRG Esports 57¢ $200 31d
Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Winthrop University (+1.5) BUY NRG Esports 56¢ $3 31d
Game Handicap: KBM (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming Academy (+1.5) BUY KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 57¢ $203 32d
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY BIG 56¢ $16 32d
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY BIG 56¢ $11 32d
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY BIG 56¢ $6 32d
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY BIG 56¢ $4 32d
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY BIG 56¢ $11 32d
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY BIG 56¢ $11 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.53 · official $182.53 (match) · 228 history records