Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
48 0x48d0…6ab2 sports 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$261 (+4%) realized +$253 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%34W / 37L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$11
14 days+$18
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$180
other 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.6% -6.3% 33% 33% -6.5%
≤30d 22 -3.5% -12.7% 32% 14% -8.5%
≤90d 50 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 30% -10.2%
all 71 -0.8% -10.3% 48% 31% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 31% -6.8%
10% -18.9% 23% -15.8%
15% -26.7% 18% -23.9%
20% -33.9% 11% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$22 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized+$253
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses34 / 37
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage120d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims) Nursulton Ruziboev 63¢ 64¢ $69 $69 +$1 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Manuel Torres 51¢ 52¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweight, Prelims) Jefferson Nascimento 51¢ 57¢ $42 $47 +$5 (+13%)
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Javier Reyes 58¢ 68¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 25 $74 −$3 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Andreas Gustafsson vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight Jun 21 $140 −$5 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $100 +$18 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $131 +$1 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $35 −$1 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P Jun 15 $71 −$2 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $166 +$10 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $33 +$13 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 05 $140 +$4 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 05 $66 +$14 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 02 $28 −$1 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 02 $87 −$5 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Jakub Wiklacz vs. Marcus McGhee (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 01 $25 −$2 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 01 $38 −$1 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Billy Elekana vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Jun 01 $49 −$2 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 01 $104 +$2 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $47 −$7 -15%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $56 −$5 -8%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $82 −$2 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 29 $116 −$5 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 28 $25 $0 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel May 27 $217 −$10 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) May 27 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Zhu Kangjie vs. Ramon Taveras (Featherweight, Prelims May 18 $76 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 16 $183 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $29 $0 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolas Dalby vs. Jeremiah Wells (Welterweight, Preli May 12 $265 −$13 -5%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $22 +$9 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Lima vs. DongHun Choi (Flyweight, Prelims) Apr 19 $8 $0 -2%
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Pr Apr 19 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Valentin vs. Julien LeBlanc (Middleweight, Mai Apr 19 $213 −$213 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $31 +$18 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 19 $130 +$34 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 18 $12 +$5 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Apr 17 $275 −$84 -30%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $60 +$58 +97%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $102 +$68 +67%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $144 −$11 -8%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 11 $25 −$3 -11%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 11 $144 +$34 +24%
UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims Apr 11 $27 $0 -2%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli Apr 11 $147 +$26 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Apr 05 $121 +$57 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $114 +$20 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 04 $157 +$22 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 04 $46 +$4 +9%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 04 $151 −$17 -11%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr Mar 30 $38 −$38 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Mar 30 $96 +$104 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig SELL Jefferson Nascimento 58¢ $16 14m
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig SELL Jefferson Nascimento 58¢ $21 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 63¢ $69 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Nursulton Ruziboev 62¢ $69 1h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 66¢ $4 31h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 66¢ $1 31h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 66¢ $4 31h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 66¢ $4 31h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 66¢ $1 31h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 66¢ $2 31h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 66¢ $4 31h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 51¢ $75 39h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Jean Matsumoto 59¢ $24 42h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 61¢ $13 42h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 60¢ $12 43h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Jean Matsumoto 59¢ $25 2d
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Jean Matsumoto 60¢ $22 2d
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 60¢ $49 3d
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 51¢ $65 3d
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 58¢ $15 4d
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 68¢ $77 4d
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 58¢ $1 5d
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 58¢ $5 5d
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 59¢ $9 5d
UFC Fight Night: Andreas Gustafsson vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight BUY Daniil Donchenko 51¢ $140 6d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 56¢ $6 6d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 56¢ $9 6d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 56¢ $74 6d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 56¢ $10 6d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 56¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.52 · official $194.52 (match) · 295 history records